PREDICTIVE SERVICES

Predictive Services Program Overview

Predictive Services was developed to provide decision support information needed to be more proactive in anticipating significant fire activity and determining resource allocation needs. Predictive Services consists of three primary functions: fire weather, fire danger/fuels, and intelligence/resource status information. Predictive Service staff units are located at the National Interagency Coordination Center (NICC) and the Geographic Area Coordination Centers (GACCs) across the country.

Predictive Services Oversight Group: The National Predictive Services Oversight Group (PSOG) provides management oversight and direction to National Predictive Services Program. The group coordinates, directs and oversees the development and implementation of national program products and services, ensures the integrity and cohesiveness of program operations, arbitrates differences, and provides a venue for dialogue and deliberation in support of a sustainable and effective program.

Intelligence: The Intelligence Section provides fire management personnel, incident managers, firefighters and support staff with access to current intelligence on preparedness levels, fire situation, resources, mapping and satellite imagery, climatology, preparedness levels, resource availability, rotation schedules, and fire potential information.

Weather: Meteorologists analyze a variety of weather products and services to provide briefings and outlooks for current and forecasted conditions, and in some cases provide spot weather and smoke forecasts. A number of innovative products and tools have been created to help fire managers assess fire potential and high-risk areas.

Fuels & Fire Danger: Wildland Fire Analysts, stationed or detailed at some locations, provide predictions and condition reports on fuels, fire danger, fire behavior, fire occurrence statistics, and resource needs.

Click Here for a list of our Outlook Products

Daily Outlooks integrate a variety of weather forecast products into a single summary product that displays the temperature, relative humidity, windspeed & direction and other fire weather conditions across individual Geographic Areas. It is posted daily during the fire season and in some cases includes a day-two forecast. This product has not yet been adapted by all Predictive Service units.

7-Day Fire Potential Outlooks was designed to determine when and where regionally and nationally shared resources would be in demand across the U.S. during the next 7 days. It combines forecasted fuel dryness with significant weather triggers to identify high risk areas. The product is posted daily during fire season and forecasts significant fire potential for the next 7 days. A national map is under development to display fire potential across the country for each day of the forecast period.

National Significant Wildland Fire Potential Outlook (Monthly-Seasonal) is normally posted on the first workday of each month and produced with input from all of the Geographic Area Predictive Service units using the most recent weather and fuels data available. The outlook identifies areas by month for the next four months with above, below, and near normal significant fire potential. The main objectives of the National Significant Wildland Fire Potential Outlooks are to improve information available to fire management decision makers. These assessments are designed to inform decision makers for proactive wildland fire management, thus better protecting lives and property, reducing firefighting costs and improving firefighting efficiency.