Project Title

Estimated Funding Source and

Amounts Required




2004 National Seasonal Assessment Workshops (NSAW)




Heath Hockenberry

$10,000 - $15,000  NICC/USFS (confirmed)

$5,000  CLIMAS (confirmed)

$4,000  NOAA(confirmed)


Decision:  Fund $10,000 - $15,000 Determine split between west and east as required.

Two workshops are proposed for FY04.  One specifically targeted for the southern and eastern states (Jan 27-29 in Shepherdstown WV) and a western states workshop (March 29 – April 2 in Phoenix, AZ).  See handouts.

Cheetah Version 2 – Update (Phase 2)

Fire Program Solutions




Tom Wordell

Don Carlton

$20,000  NICC/USFS


Fund Phase 2.  Tom will cut new task order to obligate money for Phase 2.



Decision:  Fund Phase 2


Phase 2 will finalize the updates needed to complete Version 2.  This includes:

  • Developing VB interface for new program capability
  • Adding capability of handling State fire occurrence data
  • Developing User-defined parameters that can be saved
  • Updating help files and User’s Guide
  • Adding report capability and functionality


Timeline issues: If the task order for Phase 2 is initiated during the fall of 2003, the programmer will be able to finish Version 2 by spring 04.  If not, the updated program won’t be available until 2005


12/5/03 - work order to implement Phase 2 submitted for approval.

15-Day NFDRS Forecast Model



Principal Investigator:

Tim Brown/CEFA

Total cost estimate of the project was $76,500.  To date we have provided $29,800


Balance:  $46,700


Decision: Hold off funding project further until validation studies are completed.


The model has high potential to provide predictive information about Fire Danger trends, which could be utilized to better make resource allocation decisions.  It would be highly desirable to examine other indices besides ERC, utilize ensemble forecast data to provide confidence in projections, fully develop a verification system, and evaluate other short and long-term forecast models to determine if they would improve performance.







Project Title

Estimated Funding Source and

Amounts Required




Climate Variability Workshop




Rick Ochoa

$8,000  NICC/USFS


Decision:  Schedule for FY05, possibly combine with Western NSAW workshop.  Set aside $3,000 in FY04 to possibly pay for preparation.  Is this something the GACCs should contribute funds to support?

Predictive Service personnel (both mets and Intel) currently have little training in long-range (15-day+) forecasting.  Better skills and understanding of climate variability (El Nino, Pacific Oscillation, SW Monsoons, etc) should translate into improved interpretation and outlook products.  This proposal would fund a 3-day workshop to help develop these skills and abilities within the Predictive Service Units

Intelligence Specialist Training Development



Lead Contact:

Kathy Wiegard

$10,000  NICC/USFS (FY04)


2-3 year proposal – Total funding needs = $30,000


Decision:  Gerry will request the GACCs fund an annual budget for PS that includes $1,000 to support this effort at Whitefish

The first test courses for entry-level Intelligence Specialist training (INT3) have already begun, however assistance from the development cadre will be needed for the next 2-3 years in order to facilitate a hand-off process and maintain consistent course presentation across the nation.  In addition, advanced training development is needed and is unsupported at this time.

Scripps CAP Seasonal Wildfire Forecast



Principal Investigator:

Anthony Westerling



Project Duration: 2 Years


Decision:  NPSG supports project, but suggests it be submitted to JFSP under the current AFP for tech transfer.

This project proposes to transition the experimental Western Wildfire Seasonal Forecasts to an operational product so it could be handed off to NICC Predictive Services for control and maintenance over a 2-year period.  Statistical forecasts of seasonal area burned using observed Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) values at various lead times would be produced to predict many important features of the Western fire season.


Product examples are available from:





Business Lead:

Randy Hart

Technical Lead:

Tim Matthewson

FY04 funding being provided by BLM/EGB


Decision:  Rick will draft a letter of support from NPSG for this tool.  State that tech transfer needs to be better addressed and that NPSG is not the appropriate source for funding.  Letter sent back to Randy and Tim.


The Real-Time Observation Monitor and Analysis Network (ROMAN) have secured funding for FY04 through BLM.