- National Predictive Service Group (NPSG) -
Notetaker: Lani Williams
Meeting Agenda Topics:
1. Introductions & Meeting Logistics Gerry Day
Review and approve
3. Review and revise agenda
4. Project updates Tom Wordell
a) Cheetah, version 2 (Beta)
b) Estimate daily maps of departure from norm (Haaiganoush Priesler)
5. Update on National Predictive Services Framework Gerry Day
7. CDF BI Project Ron Hamilton CA-OSC
8. Discussion with visitors of lessons learned related to Predictive Services Gerry Day
9. Updates and reports
a) NWS Fire Weather Program report Rusty Billingsley
b) Intelligence Coordinators report Gwenan Poirier
c) Fire Weather Program report Rick Ochoa
d) Center Managers report Kim Christensen/Gerry Day
10. Standardized products Tom Wordell and Gerry Day
a) Criteria to assess needs
b) Process to establish standardized products
c) Criteria to evaluate products or product components
11. Standardized weekly and monthly fire weather/fire danger outlooks Rick Ochoa
12. Bin Items
a) Future meeting preparations Bill Plough
b) FCAMMS Rick Ochoa
c) Budget (Funding mechanisms, link to proposal)
d) National Assessment Workshop
e) Group Funding criteria (Proposal Criteria)
f) Lessons Learned from the 2003 Season, Items 3 and 4
A. Pending Action Items Tracking Table 2 pgs
B. Completed Action Items Tracking Table 2 pgs
C. Issue Paper, RAWS Data Quality Oversight 1 pg
E. CDF-BI Project, Ron Hamilton 2 pgs
F. GACC Intell Workload and Staffing Questionnaire 3 pgs
G. SIT Reporting Requirements and Recommended Mob Guide Changes 2 pgs
H. Intelligence Working Group Operating Plan 3 pgs
I. Intelligence Working Group Task Groups for 2003-2004 1 pg
J. NPSG Presentation to Center Managers, Gerry Day 4 pgs
K. AWIPS Project Charter 12 pgs
Agenda Item: Review
Task 2 Topic Request Form: The agreed upon process to build the meeting agenda is not working properly. Everyone was reminded to use the form and to forward a copy of the completed form to everyone in the group.
Task 4 NPSG link on the NICC Webpage: It was brought to the attention of the group that the webpage contained an incomplete list of the group members, with contact numbers. It was also noted that the posted Group Charter is an unsigned version. Both issues will be corrected.
Funding Priorities and Decisions: Group funding decisions and priorities, including end of the year available funding were discussed.
Will be revisited as a Bin Item.
Lessons Learned Predictive Services 2003 Season, Items 3 and 4: These items will be revisited as a Bin Item.
Pending Actions Table:
2003-1 and 2003-3 Drafts are completed
Decision: Drafts needs to be turned over to the Task Group to incorporate into framework document.
2003-6 This list of projects is a dynamic document; while more information concerning the proposals is needed the process for prioritization is still evolving.
Decision: Revisit this list following discussion on the
Project Proposal Bin Item, perhaps at the
2003-7 An issue paper addressing RAWS data quality oversight was presented to the Meteorologists Group at the Whitefish meeting. (Exhibit C). No comments were received. (This issue was revisited on Wednesday).
Additional information is needed, including
· Current status of the system
· Data reliability
· Strengths/weakness of the system
· Minimum standards
· Expectations in terms of timelines
Decision: Rick and Gerry will develop an issue paper to be presented to the Fire Directors then out to the Coordination Groups for implementation.
2004-5 For projects the NPSG denies funding, a letter of support for the project, stating its value and usefulness may be of assistance as projects seek alternate funding sources.
Decision: Letters of support will be written on a case by case basis.
2004-7 The use of teleconferencing the Spring 2004 Seasonal Assessment Workshop was discussed. It was determined that while there may be interest, the needs of the audience may best be served by distributing a written summary with associated PowerPoint presentations.
Decision: Distribute summary and PowerPoint presentations.
2004-8 Task Force selected:
Ed Delgado EB
Tom Rolinski SO
Mike Fitzpatrick NW
Bill Fletcher NICC
Larry VanBussum NWS
2004-10 There are still some issues concerning the standardization of the Predictive Services Webpage. Currently the task force is soliciting comments on webpage design. The standardization includes a common banner and navigation bar, the interior of the page will be at the discretion of the GACC. However all products will have the same name. It is still unclear as to what degree all GACC Predictive Services WebPages will be the same. Some GACCs are unable to format their WebPages due to agency constraints. To overcome this, NIFC has agreed to host the websites. There was some concern that many of the customers are not being included in design process. This would include IMT members and local dispatch centers.
Decision: Gerry will contact Jay suggesting that the review be opened to larger audience. This solicitation would go out through Kim to the Fire Managers, Incident Team members and field dispatchers. A statement of the objective and explanation of why the project is being undertaken will be included.
Cheetah, Version 2 (Beta) The Cheetah program allows GACCs to analyze fire occurrence and correlate it to resource needs. The original version was of a simple structure and did not offer the capability to manipulate the data. Version 2 will allow GACCs more flexibility. Fire occurrence data will be supplied through FAMWeb. Each GACC will be required to load and validate their own data base. They will then have the flexibility to save subsets of their data. Once the data has been validated the GACC will have the ability to run reports to determine resource needs.
· This version is ready for beta testing to a select number of people.
· There will be Hand-off training when the program is ready for release.
Goal is to be ready
for field use by
· The major factor was the source of a relative large number of ignitions within a relatively short period of time.
· Fire intensity and spread were a combination of both long and short term weather, fuel conditions and drought.
· Many of the previous record ERCs were set in 1999, 2001 and 2002. This tells us that the fuel conditions were mainly the effects of generally dry, mild weather conditions over the past five years.
· The worsening of fuel conditions has been an ongoing process.
· Much has been written and talked about regarding tree mortality. One of the contributing factors for much of this Firestorm was brush mortality.
· Another factor in 2003 that was not prevalent in the previous four years was an abundance of dead light fuels, caused by a wet spring.
CDF BI Project: (Exhibit E)
CDF is faced with the responsibility of an Executive Order that mandates staffing with additional resources when Severe Fire Danger conditions exists. In 2002 Severe Fire Danger was defined as temperatures at or above 100 degrees and relative humidity at or below 20 percent at Riverside OR LAL of 6. In 2003 the Severe Fire Danger was redefined as being when the BI for the following day is expected to be at or above the 97th percentile. Once the BI has been calculated this information is emailed to counties and posted to the web to assist managers in their staffing decisions.
· Ron Hamilton shared examples of some of the products that are supplied by South Ops through their Predictive Services Webpage.
Discussion with visitors of lessons learned related to Predictive Services:
Gerry presented the Predictive Services PowerPoint presentation that was presented to the Center Managers at the December meeting in Whitefish. The guests were asked what they would like to see from Predictive Services. It was mentioned that the scope and amount of information is increasing at such a fast pace that it is often difficult to keep up with. Other points included:
· FBAN-Net is underutilized
· GACC Predictive Services webpages are constantly changing.
· SoOps Webpage is very useful
· WIMS and KCFAST should be more available and more user friendly. The need for the site to be password protected was also questioned.
· Would like to see one stop shopping.
· Need for centrally located site for live fuel moisture data, historical
· Point and click place for fire history data to be spatially displayed, (>100 ac polygon)
· Relative Greeness needs to be available at a smaller scale, (this is available at the USGS website http://gisdata.usgs.net/website/IVM/viewer,htm)
· Need server with layer data for FARSITE, (coming with LandFire).
· Need a place to retrieve current NFDRS indices, regardless of where you are
· Need NWS contact phone numbers
The need for FBANs at the GACC level was discussed. One possibility to meet the need would be a nationally funded team that rotates through the GACCs during the season. It was also pointed out that at the GACC level there may be other alternatives. GACCs need to look at the products that are needed to help determine the credentials or skills necessary to accomplish that task. This may not necessarily be an FBAN.
Another need that surfaced during the California Firestorm was the need for accurate maps in a timely fashion. This issue may be mitigated by the availability of military assets and Northern Commands interest in assisting the wildland fire community.
Updates and Reports:
Rusty Billingsley, National Weather Service Fire Program Report:
Gwenan Poirer, Intelligence Coordinator Report:
Decision: The ownership/protection issue needs to be decided among the Fire Directors and direction provided back to the field, possibly included in the Mob Guide. (2004-11)
To assist in reporting, an additional column will be added to the report that will date stamp when changes and approval has occurred for NICC. An additional user group may also be added to accommodate Public Affairs.
Rick Ochoa, Fire Weather Program Report:
Rick and Rusty are
jointly tasked to develop GACC Product Standards, due by
Updates and Reports (cont):
Kim Christensen and Gerry Day, Center Managers Report:
· Gerry shared the NPSG PowerPoint presented at the National Coordinators Meeting. (Exhibit J)
AWIPS Project Charter was handed out. (Exhibit K)
Preparedness Level Project (Gerry Day):
· Phase 1 Build Business Model using workload and capability factors. The Model is built and the report is being written.
· Additional funding is needed either through NWCG or Joint Fire Sciences for Phase 2
· Decision: Add to Agenda for April Meeting.
Haiganoush Preisler (Tom Wordell):
· Daily maps are developed using statistical departure from norm. The applicability to Predictive Services is currently unclear. There may be a use for this information initially through the budget process.
· Decision: Have her connect with Krista with the thought of using this information on the budget/fiscal side. (2004-12)
Standardized Products (Rick Ochoa):
Decision: Rick will work on developing a Survey and Outreach Plan for review by the NPSG. (2004-13)
and Outreach Plan due
Begin process at NSAW the following week
Rusty will track the FSL and NOAA Workshops concerning User needs and project development, as well as researching into policy related to new product development within these organizations. Gwenan will talk to Jay and have him give a report concerning the Webpage Standardization. The GACC webpages will be reviewed.
SA Tom NR Rick
EA Gwenan SO Bill
RM Gwenan NO Bill
SW Rusty NW Gerry
WB Rusty NICC Rick
What to look for:
Predictive Services Conference, Topic for next meeting.
Decision: Gerry or Tom will have
someone give a FCAMMS/Bluesky Presentation at the
Decision: The Framework Document needs to be presented to the Fire Directors. Once it receives buyoff, then it can be used to clarify that Smoke Management is not the role of NPSG.
Assessment Workshop Update:
Decision: Kim and Tom will develop the proposal information. (2004-14)
Lessons Learned from the 2003 Season, Items 3 and 4:
Decision: Tom will talk to Joe Frost on GIS for Field Managers possible course in development. (2004-15)
Decision: Gwenan will send out an email to validate and prioritize the current training needs next Friday. Responses of an immediate nature will be handed off to the responsible person. (2004-16)
Decision: Most unresolved issues are due to a lack of framework. The list will be given to the Task Group to see how they fit in to the Goals and Objectives. (2004-17)
Framework Scope Statement:
Decision: Gerry will talk to Barry Mathias for further direction and draft a Scoping Statement prior to the Task Group Meeting. (2004-18)