- National Predictive Service Group (NPSG) -
Notetaker: Lani Williams
Meeting Agenda Topics:
1. Introductions & Meeting Logistics Gerry Day
Review and approve
3. Review and revise agenda Gerry Day
4. Project updates
a) NWS Fire Weather Program Report Rusty Billingsley
b) Intelligence Coordinators report Gwenan Poirier
c) Fire Weather Program report Rick Ochoa
d) NWCG Working Team Meeting Gerry Day
5. JFSP National Preparedness Level Project Gerry Day
6. Standardized weekly and monthly fire weather/fire danger outlooks Rick Ochoa
7. GACC Web survey/questionnaire Jay Ellington
8. GACC Web standards Jay Ellington/Gerry Day
9. NPSG Predictive Services Framework Gerry Day
a) Review draft from the Task Group/2004-17 check for deficiencies
c) Consolidation and refinement
d) Next Steps
10. Project budget request FY-2004
11. Blue Sky/FCAMMS Sim Larkin
12. Project Updates
a) Cheetah, Version 2 Tom Wordell
b) Seasonal Assessment Workshops Rick Ochoa
13. Predictive Services Conference
14. New product procedures (NWS example)
15. Bin Items
a) Future meeting preparations
Questionnaire survey from
A. Pending Action Items Tracking Table 2 pgs
B. Completed Action Items Tracking Table 2 pgs
C. 2004 NPSG Funding and Project Status 4 pgs
D. NPSG Framework and Goals-Final Draft 14 pgs
E. GACC Website Development Task Group 3 pgs
F. Guidelines for GACC Websites Hosted on FAMWEB 30 pgs
G. Fire and Weather Smoke Management 6 pgs
H. BlueSkyRAINS Quarterly 2 pgs
I. National Weather Service New Products/Services Process 2 pgs
J. National Weather Service Product/Service Description Document 2 pgs
K. Portugal Questionnaire 3 pgs
Pending Actions Table:
2003-7 RAWS data quality oversight is an issue that needs to be addressed by each GACC.
Decision: Rick and Gerry will develop the issue
paper. The draft will be completed by
May 15th. The paper should be
completed to be routed to the
2004-2/2004-12 The group sees the potential for application of the work by Haiganoush Preisler and Tony Westerling to Krista Geberts effort at suppression budget estimating.
Decision: Neal will offer to familiarize Krista Gebert with the work of Haiganoush Preisler and Tony Westerling. The group agreed the task should be closed.
The Intell training session for the
2004-5 The ROMAN committee currently consists of Ed Delgado, Tim Matheson and Randy Hart. ROMAN is currently in need of a host site which will be provided by the Weather Service either in Salt Lake City and/or Boise. The project is also in need of funding beyond April 2004. Broader support may be necessary for ROMAN to be approved through IRM. Decision: Rick will find out what support from NPSG can provide and draft a letter from NPSG in support. (Completed)
2004-11 The survey regarding ownership/protection consistency on the Sit Report and the ICS-209 from the Intell Coordinators should be returned by May 4th. This data will be compiled and summarized.
Decision: The results of the survey will be discussed during a conference call in May, an issue paper and recommendation will then be forwarded to NMAC. In addition, there is a potential for this issue to be addressed through the Fire Occurrence Project. A request for the NPSG to provide input in the project scope and development process will be submitted to the PMO (NWCG Project Management Office).
2004-13 Agenda Item
2004-14 Agenda Item
2004-15 There are currently two GPS/GIS training courses that would assist managers in their program development. If there is an additional need Joe Frost is willing to develop training that is identified by specific elements.
· There has been an expressed need for an interactive dialog on the application of GIS in Predictive Services.
· The NW has hired a GIS Specialist this season and will work towards applying GIS techniques into Predictive Services. This will be an opportunity for NPSG to review the lessons learned from the NW after the season.
· GIS has been identified as an area of deficiency, and requests for proposals maybe encouraged in the proposal process. This item should be revisited with the project proposal process.
2004-16 Gwenan received limited response from the training needs survey. Interest was expressed for Fire Family Plus, HTML, Regression Analysis, (others). A need for training to assist those in Predictive Services in dealing with the Media has also been expressed.
Decision: New Agenda Item, Interactive GIS and other training needs will be prioritized and reviewed for possible inclusion as Agenda Items for the Fall Intell/Predictive Services Meeting. (2004-19)
GACC Website Development Task Group Jay Ellington: (Exhibits E and F)
The need for website standardization was identified in 2002 and a group met to address the situation. The group consists of:
Ed Delgado EBC
Steve Marien EAC
Tom Rolinski OSC
Kathy Weigardt WBC
Jay Ellington SWC
· A survey was completed and the results have been compiled. Using these results a GACC web page template has been developed.
· The template consists of a banner across the top and along the left side with four options (Predictive Services, Fire Management, Related Links, and Fire Information).
The Websites will be hosted on the FAMWeb
Server. The target date for the server
· Similar products should be called by the same name, product standardization.
· A URL has been identified: http://gacc.nifc.gov
· GACCs will have the choice of being hosted on the FAMWeb Server or existing servers, linked to the GACC Homepage.
· A How to guideline have been written, for implementation.
Kim and Neal will write a letter to the Center Managers from NPSG to inform them of the following decisions (2004-20):
Gerry will ensure that the FAMWEB server is available to host the GACC Predictive Services WebPages, with auto-forwarded links to the individual Webpages, (2004-23).
Definitions that need to be clarified/defined:
Large Fire Potential
Updates and Reports:
Gwenan Poirer, Intelligence Coordinator Report:
Decision: Neal will set up a time to meet with Dan to review and prioritize the list.
Rusty Billingsley, National Weather Service Fire Program Report:
Rick Ochoa, Fire Weather Program Report:
NWCG Working Team Meeting Gerry Day:
Based on a series of letters and a recognized course of action that may be leading to a duplication of efforts and tasks, the NWCG has requested a meeting to reorganize the Fire Weather Working Team and the Fire Behavior Working Team. This meeting will:
· Examine the organizational mission
· Define a recommended configuration
· Develop a Mission Statement for the newly defined group and supporting subgroups as appropriate.
The results of this meeting will aid in defining the newly formed Interagency Fire Weather Group.
JFSP National Interagency Process for Predicting Preparedness Levels Gerry Day:
Standardized weekly and monthly Fire Danger and Fire Weather Outlooks Rick Ochoa:
effort to standardize products, the existing variety of products and needs of
the users will need to be surveyed.
Originally the timeline involved product development during the
fall/early winter and implementation
Decision: During the summer of 2004, a survey will be
conducted. During the fall 2004 through
spring 2005 a series of workshops and small group meetings will be conducted to
help define and determine the products.
2005 will be the design, build and evaluate phase, this will also be the
time to assure that the program will be able to be successfully implemented.
NPSG Predictive Services Framework Document: (Exhibit D)
The Draft Framework document was reviewed and edited.
NPSG Predictive Services Framework Document (cont):
Gerry will draft a cover letter to solicit review and comments from NMAC, GACC Managers, NWCG and Working Teams and Predictive Services. The package will also contain terminology used in the development of the Framework, (2004-27).
Explore the utilization of private contractors(s) to develop a through approach to assess user needs for Predictive Services products to include, (2004-25):
Neal will explore the utilization of private consultants in the design, development and implementation of a User Assessment Plan.
Gerry will visit an outside company on the process that they utilize.
Gwenan will contact GACCs and have them assemble a list of their current products and bring them to the fall meeting. (2004-26).
Budget: (Exhibit C)
Decision: NICC will provide an individual and fund the work. Tom will work with them. The data will be validated to determine if project needs to be ongoing.
BlueSky/FCAMMS Sim Larkin (206-732-7849, firstname.lastname@example.org): (Exhibits G and H)
· FCAMMS Fire Consortia for Advanced Modeling of Meteorology and Smoke (www.fs.fed.us/fcamms).
· Northwest Modeling Consortium (www.atmos.washington.edu/pnw_environ)
o MM5 runs, feed into value added products
o MM5 maps, produce forecast maps
o Work with MM5 leads into Blue Sky.
o Smoke modeling framework.
o Provides real time smoke concentration predictions.
o Teams are calling to have wildland fires added into the prediction.
o Products are available by GACCs in two or three formats.
o Goal is to migrate BlueSky and MM5 to other FCAMMS around the country.
· BlueSky RAINS Application
o Useful to Incident Command Teams for Public Information, Aircraft, planning burning operations.
o Local level would like more confidence in go/no go decisions.
o Air Quality Information Planning Tool.
o New project funded by USDA
o BlueSky with combined historical and climate information.
o Probability maps of impact.
o Probability of meeting prescription
o Probability of impact from prescription
o Can be used for any point source that affects air quality (ex. Dairy farms).
· Sim would like feedback:
o What are you looking for?
o What are your priorities?
Rick will solicit input from GACC meteorologists and Intell groups to determine what their interactions are with FCAMMS and to get their input for predictive services products they would like to see FCAMMS produce, (2004-28).
Rick and Tom will talk to Sue
NPS Conference Room reserved
Start at 1200, adjourn end of day Thursday
Start at 0800
Conference Call Agenda:
2003-6 and 2004-13:
Decision: This item has been incorporated into the NPSG Framework Document.
With the funding limitations that NPSG is under ($50,000/year), a systematic process needs to be developed to review potential funding proposals.
Decision: Kim and Tom will develop the criteria for submitting proposals to NPSG. Due date July, 4; this will allow for utilization for fall proposals.
October Agenda Items:
Decision: Agenda topic for
October Meeting How to get funding for Predictive Services product
Predictive Services Conference/Symposium
May need to incorporate into Joint Coordinators Meeting for support.
AMS Orland Meeting, Fall 2005 in
Special section on Predictive Services
Look for opportunities in the future to engage.
Decision: Rick will contact Sue Ferguson and Tim Brown to determine if Predictive Services could tag onto the AMS meeting to present new product ideas, (2004-31).
National Weather Service New Product Rusty Billingsley: (Exhibits I and J)
Neal received a questionnaire from
Blue Ribbon Report
to the Governor of
This report was released last week. There were a couple of issues that referenced Intell.
The importance on maintaining and calibrating RAWS units was discussed.